All matches

BV De Graafschap — FC Utrecht II, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

BV De Graafschap
2.1WLWLL
—
FC Utrecht II
0.8LWWDL
Outcome probability
591921
BV De Graafschap59%Draw19%FC Utrecht II21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1BV De Graafschap59%1.69—
XDraw19%5.14—
2FC Utrecht II21%4.71—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.59

No37%

ours 2.69

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBV De GraafschapFC Utrecht IICombined
Goals scored0.832.002.83
Conceded2.001.673.67
Corners11.411.211.3
Cards1.81.73.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    BV De GraafschapFC Utrecht II
    2Matches in 14 days0
    6Days of rest14
    19Table position17
    50.20%Possession47.70%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour BV De Graafschap: a home win is rated at 59%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

BV De Graafschap

  • homeFC Den Bosch1:0
  • homeNAC Breda1:2
  • awayFC Emmen2:1
  • awayHeracles Almelo0:5
  • homeAlmere City FC1:4

FC Utrecht II

  • homeVVV Venlo1:3
  • homeAFC Ajax II6:1
  • awayNAC Breda3:2
  • homeFC Eindhoven0:0
  • awayAlkmaar Zaanstreek II1:2

Head to head

  • 02/20/26Eerste Divisie1:0
  • 12/08/25Eerste Divisie3:2
  • 01/20/25Eerste Divisie1:1
  • 08/23/24Eerste Divisie2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15AFC Ajax II922513:228
16FC Den Bosch821512:177
17FC Utrecht II921615:217
18FC Dordrecht821512:237
19BV De Graafschap82159:207
20FC Oss82068:136

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.