Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC — Connah's Quay Nomads FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier LeagueOctober 9 at 06:45 PM

Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC

1.5DDLLL

—

Connah's Quay Nomads FC

2.5WWWLD

Outcome probability

1675

Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC10%Draw16%Connah's Quay Nomads FC75%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC10%10.33—

XDraw16%6.41—

2Connah's Quay Nomads FC75%1.34—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.14

No53%

ours 1.87

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBriton Ferry Llansawel AFCConnah's Quay Nomads FCCombined

Goals scored0.831.672.50

Conceded1.670.672.34

Corners9.612.210.9

Cards1.81.23.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Briton Ferry Llansawel AFCConnah's Quay Nomads FC
12Table position3
58.60%Possession58.20%
6.2Days of rest6.2
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Connah's Quay Nomads FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 75%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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