All matches

Bristol City FC — Sheffield United FC, Championship

England, Championship

Bristol City FC
1.8WLLWW
—
Sheffield United FC
2.0LLWLW
Outcome probability
442828
Bristol City FC44%Draw28%Sheffield United FC28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bristol City FC44%2.27—
XDraw28%3.56—
2Sheffield United FC28%3.60—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBristol City FCSheffield United FCCombined
Goals scored0.670.671.34
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners11.09.810.4
Cards1.52.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Bristol City FCSheffield United FC
    9Table position18
    3.8Days of rest2.8
    48.80%Possession39.50%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Bristol City FC: a home win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Bristol City FC

  • homeWatford FC1:0
  • homeLincoln City FC0:1
  • awaySouthampton FC1:4
  • awayBurnley FC2:1
  • awayPreston North End FC3:1

Sheffield United FC

  • awayStoke City FC1:2
  • homeWolverhampton Wanderers FC0:1
  • awayBlackburn Rovers FC2:1
  • homeNorwich City FC1:3
  • homeBolton Wanderers FC3:2

Head to head

  • 04/06/26Championship1:0
  • 08/09/25Championship4:1
  • 05/12/25Championship0:3
  • 05/08/25Championship0:3
  • 03/11/25Championship1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511
13Lincoln City FC83237:811
14Wrexham FC82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108
20Watford FC82247:108

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.