Bristol City FC — Blackburn Rovers FC, Championship

England, ChampionshipOctober 13 at 06:45 PM

Bristol City FC

1.8WLLWW

—

Blackburn Rovers FC

1.4DWLLD

Outcome probability

462826

Bristol City FC46%Draw28%Blackburn Rovers FC26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Bristol City FC46%2.17—

XDraw28%3.51—

2Blackburn Rovers FC26%3.92—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.20

No55%

ours 1.83

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBristol City FCBlackburn Rovers FCCombined

Goals scored1.171.172.34

Conceded1.171.172.34

Corners10.212.011.1

Cards1.22.43.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Bristol City FCBlackburn Rovers FC
9Table position16
48.60%Possession56.80%
3.3Days of rest3.2
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Bristol City FC: a home win is rated at 46%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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