All matches

Eintracht Braunschweig — Holstein Kiel, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. Bundesliga

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.2LDLLL
—
Holstein Kiel
1.1DLDLD
Outcome probability
382735
Eintracht Braunschweig38%Draw27%Holstein Kiel35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Eintracht Braunschweig38%37%2.622.67+0.8
XDraw27%26%3.723.82+0.7
2Holstein Kiel35%43%2.862.32-8.2

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80book 1.44

No44%

ours 2.25book 2.58

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEintracht BraunschweigHolstein KielCombined
Goals scored2.001.173.17
Conceded2.171.673.84
Corners11.311.811.6
Cards2.53.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Eintracht BraunschweigHolstein Kiel
    48.30%Possession55.00%
    15Table position16
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Braunschweiger TSV Eintracht 1895 look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%. Bookmakers price this at 2.67.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%1.57
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Eintracht Braunschweig

  • awayKaiserslautern0:1
  • homeDynamo Dresden2:2
  • awayOsnabruck1:3
  • homeHertha Berlin3:5
  • homeVfL Bochum0:1

Holstein Kiel

  • homeOsnabruck1:1
  • awayHeidenheim0:1
  • homeNurnberg2:2
  • awayMagdeburg0:2
  • homeSt. Pauli2:2

Head to head

  • 05/02/262. Bundesliga0:2
  • 12/07/252. Bundesliga1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Arminia Bielefeld612310:125
14Karlsruher SC61236:125
15Eintracht Braunschweig611412:134
16Holstein Kiel60427:104
17Dynamo Dresden61148:144
18Darmstadt 9861145:134

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.