Braunschweiger TSV Eintracht 1895 — Hannoverscher Sportverein 1896, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. BundesligaOctober 25 at 12:30 PM

Braunschweiger TSV Eintracht 1895

1.2LDLLL

—

Hannoverscher Sportverein 1896

2.4WLDWL

Outcome probability

302644

Braunschweiger TSV Eintracht 189530%Draw26%Hannoverscher Sportverein 189644%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Braunschweiger TSV Eintracht 189530%3.35—

XDraw26%3.85—

2Hannoverscher Sportverein 189644%2.26—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBraunschweiger TSV Eintracht 1895Hannoverscher Sportverein 1896Combined

Goals scored1.001.002.00

Conceded1.830.832.66

Corners11.810.511.1

Cards3.02.55.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Braunschweiger TSV Eintracht 1895Hannoverscher Sportverein 1896
15Table position10
45.50%Possession52.00%
8.1Days of rest7.8
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Hannoverscher Sportverein 1896 travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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