Brøndby IF — Lyngby Boldklub, Superliga

Denmark, SuperligaOctober 11 at 02:00 PM

Brøndby IF

2.1LLLLW

—

Lyngby Boldklub

1.3LDWDL

Outcome probability

582418

Brøndby IF58%Draw24%Lyngby Boldklub18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Brøndby IF58%1.73—

XDraw24%4.11—

2Lyngby Boldklub18%5.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.39

No58%

ours 1.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBrøndby IFLyngby BoldklubCombined

Goals scored1.331.002.33

Conceded2.331.503.83

Corners9.810.210.0

Cards1.82.34.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Brøndby IFLyngby Boldklub
5Table position10
58.80%Possession48.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Brøndby IF look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 58%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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