Bosnia Herzegovina — Poland, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations League06:45 PM

Bosnia Herzegovina

1.9WDLWL

—

Poland

1.8LDLWW

Outcome probability

313040

Bosnia Herzegovina31%Draw30%Poland40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Bosnia Herzegovina31%3.27—

XDraw30%3.36—

2Poland40%2.52—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.81

No64%

ours 1.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBosnia HerzegovinaPolandCombined

Goals scored0.671.171.84

Conceded1.171.002.17

Corners8.39.58.9

Cards2.32.54.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Bosnia HerzegovinaPoland
7Table position40
48.50%Possession56.30%
3Days of rest3
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Poland travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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