Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
—
Bolton Wanderers FC — Stoke City FC, Championship
England, Championship
Bolton Wanderers FC
1.8WWLLLStoke City FC
1.3WWDWWOutcome probability
492724
Bolton Wanderers FC49%Draw27%Stoke City FC24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bolton Wanderers FC2.06—
XDraw3.70—
2Stoke City FC4.09—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBolton Wanderers FCStoke City FCCombined
Goals scored1.501.833.33
Conceded2.331.173.50
Corners10.89.710.3
Cards1.32.53.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Bolton Wanderers FCStoke City FC15Table position851.50%Possession48.20%14Days of rest140Matches in 14 days0 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Bolton Wanderers FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 49%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
72%
Form and context
Bolton Wanderers FC
- awayNorwich City FC4:3
- homeCardiff City FC1:0
- homeWest Ham United FC2:3
- awayMillwall FC0:4
- awaySheffield United FC2:3
Stoke City FC
- homeSheffield United FC2:1
- awayWatford FC2:1
- awayCardiff City FC1:1
- homeCharlton Athletic FC4:0
- homeNorwich City FC1:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
West Bromwich Albion FC842210:8147
Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
Queens Park Rangers FC834110:7138Stoke City FC841313:1213
Stoke City FC841313:12139
Bristol City FC841311:1213
Bristol City FC841311:121310
Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
Charlton Athletic FC83327:101211
Birmingham City FC825112:1111
Birmingham City FC825112:111112
Millwall FC832315:1511
Millwall FC832315:151113
Lincoln City FC83237:811
Lincoln City FC83237:81114
Wrexham FC82429:1210
Wrexham FC82429:121015Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers FC831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
Blackburn Rovers FC823312:12917
Norwich City FC830516:179
Norwich City FC830516:179