All matches

Blackburn Rovers FC — Cardiff City FC, Championship

England, Championship

Blackburn Rovers FC
1.4DWLLD
—
Cardiff City FC
1.3WLDLL
Outcome probability
472825
Blackburn Rovers FC47%Draw28%Cardiff City FC25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Blackburn Rovers FC47%2.13—
XDraw28%3.60—
2Cardiff City FC25%3.97—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99

No50%

ours 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBlackburn Rovers FCCardiff City FCCombined
Goals scored1.331.172.50
Conceded1.501.503.00
Corners11.010.810.9
Cards2.52.75.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Blackburn Rovers FCCardiff City FC
    16Table position21
    56.50%Possession64.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Blackburn Rovers FC: a home win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Blackburn Rovers FC

  • awayPortsmouth FC2:2
  • homeMillwall FC3:1
  • homeSheffield United FC1:2
  • awayPreston North End FC1:2
  • awayLincoln City FC0:0

Cardiff City FC

  • homeCharlton Athletic FC3:1
  • awayBolton Wanderers FC0:1
  • homeStoke City FC1:1
  • awayPortsmouth FC0:2
  • awayQueens Park Rangers FC1:2

Head to head

  • 03/15/25Championship1:2
  • 11/09/24Championship3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14Wrexham FC82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108
20Watford FC82247:108
21Cardiff City FC814310:127
22Derby County FC81257:145
23Preston North End FC81168:154

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.