BK Häcken — Örgryte IS, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 11 at 02:30 PM

BK Häcken

2.0WDDLW

—

Örgryte IS

1.4LLDLD

Outcome probability

621919

BK Häcken62%Draw19%Örgryte IS19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1BK Häcken62%1.61—

XDraw19%5.16—

2Örgryte IS19%5.36—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.71

No41%

ours 2.42

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBK HäckenÖrgryte ISCombined

Goals scored1.830.832.66

Conceded0.672.002.67

Corners10.311.811.1

Cards1.30.72.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
BK HäckenÖrgryte IS
5Table position15
53.30%Possession44.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour BK Häcken: a home win is rated at 62%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans