BK Häcken — Degerfors, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 24 at 01:00 PM

BK Häcken

2.0WDDLW

—

Degerfors

1.3LWLLW

Outcome probability

592120

BK Häcken59%Draw21%Degerfors20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1BK Häcken59%1.69—

XDraw21%4.78—

2Degerfors20%5.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.03

No51%

ours 1.97

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBK HäckenDegerforsCombined

Goals scored1.170.331.50

Conceded0.670.501.17

Corners9.812.010.9

Cards0.82.02.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
BK HäckenDegerfors
5Table position13
5.9Days of rest4.8
50.70%Possession55.30%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour BK Häcken: a home win is rated at 59%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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