Birmingham City FC — Preston North End FC, Championship

England, ChampionshipOctober 13 at 07:00 PM

Birmingham City FC

1.9DWLDD

—

Preston North End FC

1.2DLLWL

Outcome probability

572518

Birmingham City FC57%Draw25%Preston North End FC18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Birmingham City FC57%1.75—

XDraw25%4.06—

2Preston North End FC18%5.46—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99

No50%

ours 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBirmingham City FCPreston North End FCCombined

Goals scored1.331.002.33

Conceded1.331.502.83

Corners11.011.811.4

Cards2.42.24.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Birmingham City FCPreston North End FC
11Table position23
45.60%Possession43.00%
3.3Days of rest3.2
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Birmingham City FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 57%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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