UEFA Nations League

BelgiumВПВВВ
—
TurkeyПВППВ
1Belgium53%model1.89
XDraw26%model3.92
2Turkey22%model4.63
calculated at 23:14, 287 мс

Outcome

Belgium53%
Draw26%
Turkey22%

Corners

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Total 2.5

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Both teams to score

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Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Belgium vs Turkey

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour Belgium: a home win is rated at 53%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Belgium

WLWWW
  • awayItaly2:0
  • awaySpain1:2
  • awayUnited States Men's4:1
  • homeSenegal3:2
  • awayNew Zealand5:1

Turkey

LWLLW
  • homeFrance0:1
  • homeUnited States Men's3:2
  • homeParaguay0:1
  • awayAustralia0:2
  • awayKosovo1:0

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
2Armenia11002:03
3Lithuania11002:03
4Belgium11002:03
5Norway11003:23
6Montenegro11002:13
7Malta11002:13
8Greece11002:13
9Sweden11002:13
10Northern Ireland11001:03
11Kosovo11001:03
12Portugal11001:03
13Ukraine11001:03
14France11001:03
15Germany10101:11
16Netherlands10101:11
17Bosnia Herzegovina10100:01
18Poland10100:01
19Denmark10012:30
20Serbia10011:20
21Andorra10011:20
22Romania10011:20
23Cyprus10011:20
24Georgia10010:10
25Turkey10010:10
26Hungary10010:10
27Republic of Ireland10010:10
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.