Belarus — Finland, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations LeagueOctober 6 at 06:45 PM

Belarus

1.5DLDDL

—

Finland

1.5DWLLW

Outcome probability

333631

Belarus33%Draw36%Finland31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Belarus33%3.00—

XDraw36%2.76—

2Finland31%3.28—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes25%

ours 4.08

No75%

ours 1.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBelarusFinlandCombined

Goals scored0.501.502.00

Conceded1.001.002.00

Corners10.88.69.7

Cards2.81.44.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
BelarusFinland
43Table position11
39.60%Possession55.60%
3.1Days of rest3.2
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
No clear favourite here — the teams look evenly matched, with a draw rated at 36%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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