All matches

BB Erzurumspor — Eyüp Spor Kulübü, Süper Lig

Turkey, Süper Lig

BB Erzurumspor
1.9WLWDL
—
Eyüp Spor Kulübü
1.4LLLWL
Outcome probability
502822
BB Erzurumspor50%Draw28%Eyüp Spor Kulübü22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1BB Erzurumspor50%2.00—
XDraw28%3.53—
2Eyüp Spor Kulübü22%4.60—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.75

No64%

ours 1.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBB ErzurumsporEyüp Spor KulübüCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded1.332.503.83
Corners7.68.88.2
Cards1.61.22.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    BB ErzurumsporEyüp Spor Kulübü
    6.9Days of rest4.7
    14Table position18
    41.00%Possession50.80%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    BB Erzurumspor look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

BB Erzurumspor

  • homeSamsunspor1:0
  • awayBeşiktaş0:3
  • homeKonyaspor1:0
  • awayGençlerbirliği1:1
  • homeGalatasaray0:4

Eyüp Spor Kulübü

  • awayFenerbahçe0:8
  • homeÇaykur Rizespor0:2
  • awayÇorum Belediye Spor Kulübü0:3
  • homeAlanyaspor2:1
  • homeGaziantep FK0:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12İstanbul Başakşehir FK621310:117
13Gençlerbirliği62135:137
14BB Erzurumspor62133:117
15Konyaspor61144:84
16Samsunspor61146:124
17Göztepe603311:153
18Eyüp Spor Kulübü61052:163

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.