All matches

Barry Town United FC — Haverfordwest County AFC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Barry Town United FC
2.4LLDWL
—
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.0LLWWD
Outcome probability
592318
Barry Town United FC59%Draw23%Haverfordwest County AFC18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Barry Town United FC59%1.70—
XDraw23%4.30—
2Haverfordwest County AFC18%5.56—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.26

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBarry Town United FCHaverfordwest County AFCCombined
Goals scored1.500.672.17
Conceded2.000.502.50
Corners9.86.58.1
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Barry Town United FCHaverfordwest County AFC
    6Table position11
    52.00%Possession48.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Barry Town United FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 59%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 9.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Barry Town United FC

  • homeConnah's Quay Nomads FC1:4
  • awayColwyn Bay FC2:5
  • homeAmmanford AFC2:2
  • homeLlandudno FC4:1
  • awayThe New Saints FC0:1

Haverfordwest County AFC

  • awayCardiff Metropolitan University FC0:1
  • awayColwyn Bay FC0:1
  • homeHolywell Town FC1:0
  • homeBriton Ferry Llansawel AFC3:1
  • awayConnah's Quay Nomads FC1:1

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Welsh Premier League1:1
  • 11/28/25Welsh Premier League4:0
  • 09/23/25Welsh Premier League3:2
  • 01/14/25Welsh Premier League1:1
  • 09/24/24Welsh Premier League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Caernarfon Town FC1172235:1323
5Colwyn Bay FC1171321:1422
6Barry Town United FC1171326:2022
7Cardiff Metropolitan University FC1153322:1318
8Cambrian & Clydach Vale FC1153321:2318
9Llandudno FC1151521:1816
10Airbus UK FC1150618:1715
11Haverfordwest County AFC113177:1610
12Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC1123610:209
13Flint Town United FC1112811:245

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.