Barracas Central — CA Huracán, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 11 at 12:00 AM

Barracas Central

2.0LDDLL

—

CA Huracán

2.0WWDDD

Outcome probability

373231

Barracas Central37%Draw32%CA Huracán31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Barracas Central37%2.70—

XDraw32%3.14—

2CA Huracán31%3.21—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.87

No65%

ours 1.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBarracas CentralCA HuracánCombined

Goals scored0.171.001.17

Conceded0.500.671.17

Corners8.87.88.3

Cards4.51.86.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Barracas CentralCA Huracán
21Table position10
67.50%Possession40.80%
7.2Days of rest7
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Barracas Central look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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