All matches

Barcelona SC — CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Barcelona SC
2.6DDWLW
—
CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador
2.5LWWDD
Outcome probability
392933
Barcelona SC39%Draw29%CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Barcelona SC39%2.59—
XDraw29%3.50—
2CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador33%3.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99

No50%

ours 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBarcelona SCCD Universidad Católica del EcuadorCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners9.59.89.7
Cards2.50.63.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Barcelona SCCD Universidad Católica del Ecuador
    6Table position3
    63.00%Possession54.60%
    7Days of rest7
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Barcelona SC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Barcelona SC

  • homeDelfin SC1:1
  • awaySD Aucas1:1
  • homeCSD Independiente del Valle2:1
  • awayManta FC0:2
  • homeOrense SC3:0

CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador

  • awayLiga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito1:2
  • homeOrense SC2:1
  • awayDelfin SC1:0
  • homeSD Aucas1:1
  • awayCSD Independiente del Valle2:2

Head to head

  • 07/22/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:2
  • 03/22/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:1
  • 12/07/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:1
  • 11/02/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:1
  • 08/31/25Primera Categoría Serie A2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CSD Independiente del Valle30242473:3374
2CSD Macará31166943:3454
3CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador31149852:2951
4SD Aucas31148934:3050
5Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito311471033:2549
6Barcelona SC301111832:2544
7CA Libertad311281135:3544
8CD Leones del Norte3110101132:3340

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.