UEFA Nations League

AzerbaijanНПППП
—
LithuaniaНВППП
1Azerbaijan46%model2.17
XDraw29%model3.43
2Lithuania25%model4.05

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

Expected goals, corners, cards and referee data — with a subscription

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calculated at 15:26, 126 мс

Outcome

Azerbaijan46%
Draw29%
Lithuania25%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Azerbaijan look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 46%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Azerbaijan

DLLLL
  • awayLithuania1:1
  • homeFrance1:3
  • homeIceland0:2
  • awayUkraine1:2
  • awayFrance0:3

Lithuania

DWLLL
  • homeAzerbaijan1:1
  • awayLiechtenstein2:0
  • awayNetherlands0:4
  • homePoland0:2
  • awayFinland1:2

Head to head — score from the perspective of Azerbaijan

  • 09/27/26away · UEFA Nations League1:1D

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Lithuania21103:14
2Finland11007:03
3Switzerland11003:03
4Austria11003:13
5Belgium11002:03
6Armenia11002:03
7Slovakia11002:03
8Albania11002:03
9Norway11003:23
10Spain11003:23
11Greece11002:13
12Montenegro11002:13
13Croatia11002:13
14Sweden11002:13
15Malta11002:13
16Luxembourg11002:13
17France11001:03
18Kosovo11001:03
19Northern Ireland11001:03
20Ukraine11001:03
21Portugal11001:03
22Estonia10101:11
23Kazakhstan10101:11
24Iceland10101:11
25Faroe Islands10101:11
26Germany10101:11
27Azerbaijan10101:11
28Netherlands10101:11
29Poland10100:01
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.