UEFA Nations League

AzerbaijanППППН
—
LiechtensteinППППП
1Azerbaijan78%model1.29
XDraw15%model6.60
2Liechtenstein7%model14.08

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

calculated at 07:48, 168 мс

Outcome

Azerbaijan78%
Draw15%
Liechtenstein7%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Azerbaijan look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 78%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Azerbaijan

LLLLD
  • homeFrance1:3
  • homeIceland0:2
  • awayUkraine1:2
  • awayFrance0:3
  • homeUkraine1:1

Liechtenstein

LLLLL
  • homeLithuania0:2
  • awayBelgium0:7
  • homeWales0:1
  • awayKazakhstan0:4
  • awayFYR Macedonia0:5

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
14Wales10010:10
15Israel10011:30
16Liechtenstein10010:20

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.