All matches

Avai FC — Londrina EC, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

Avai FC
1.6LLDLL
—
Londrina EC
1.4LLWWL
Outcome probability
392634
Avai FC39%Draw26%Londrina EC34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Avai FC39%2.53—
XDraw26%3.79—
2Londrina EC34%2.93—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAvai FCLondrina ECCombined
Goals scored0.501.672.17
Conceded1.671.172.84
Corners8.411.09.7
Cards2.63.05.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Avai FCLondrina EC
    42.60%Possession49.80%
    4.4Days of rest5
    17Table position18
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Avai FC: a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Avai FC

  • awayCriciuma EC0:3
  • awayGoiás EC1:2
  • homeVila Nova FC1:1
  • awayFortaleza EC0:1
  • awayGrêmio Novorizontino1:3

Londrina EC

  • awayVila Nova FC0:2
  • homeFortaleza EC1:2
  • homeAssociacao Atletica Ponte Preta6:0
  • awaySão Bernardo FC2:1
  • homeOperário Ferroviário EC1:2

Head to head

  • 06/16/26Serie B2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15Ceará SC30991233:3936
16Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto30981334:3635
17Avai FC30861630:4130
18Londrina EC30771639:4328
19América FC - Minas Gerais30452121:5017
20Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta30342317:6413

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.