All matches

Aston Villa FC — Manchester City FC, Premier League

England, Premier League

Aston Villa FC
3.3WLWDL
—
Manchester City FC
3.7WWWWW
Outcome probability
182458
Aston Villa FC18%Draw24%Manchester City FC58%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Aston Villa FC18%5.59—
XDraw24%4.11—
2Manchester City FC58%1.73—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAston Villa FCManchester City FCCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners9.512.010.8
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Aston Villa FCManchester City FC
    16Table position1
    2.7Days of rest3.7
    45.00%Possession50.00%
    4Matches in 14 days4
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Manchester City FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 58%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Aston Villa FC

  • awayTottenham Hotspur FC3:2
  • homeNottingham Forest FC1:2
  • awayClub Brugge KV3:2
  • awayHull City AFC0:0
  • homeArsenal FC0:1

Manchester City FC

  • homeSunderland AFC5:3
  • awayManchester United FC1:0
  • awayFC Porto2:0
  • homeCoventry City FC1:0
  • awayCrystal Palace FC4:1

Head to head

  • 05/24/26Premier League2:1
  • 10/26/25Premier League1:0
  • 04/22/25Premier League1:2
  • 12/21/24Premier League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Manchester City FC550013:515
2Arsenal FC54018:412
3Brighton & Hove Albion FC531116:510
4Brentford FC523010:49
5Leeds United FC52307:39
6Liverpool FC52307:49
7Everton FC52306:39
8Hull City AFC52216:48
9Newcastle United FC52219:98
10Chelsea FC521210:127
11Ipswich Town FC52037:116
12Manchester United FC51228:85
13Nottingham Forest FC51224:55
14Sunderland AFC51136:104
15Crystal Palace FC51136:114
16Aston Villa FC51134:94
17AFC Bournemouth50326:83
18Coventry City FC51041:103

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.