All matches

Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF — Leixões SC, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaPro

Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF
1.9LLLWW
—
Leixões SC
1.9DWWLW
Outcome probability
392635
Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF39%Draw26%Leixões SC35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF39%2.59—
XDraw26%3.83—
2Leixões SC35%2.84—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAssociação Académica de Coimbra OAFLeixões SCCombined
Goals scored0.671.332.00
Conceded1.500.832.33
Corners10.09.89.9
Cards3.02.85.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Associação Académica de Coimbra OAFLeixões SC
    9Table position6
    12.7Days of rest13.8
    49.60%Possession51.40%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF: a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF

  • homeSL Benfica II0:3
  • awayFC Penafiel1:4
  • homeFC Lusitania de Lourosa0:2
  • awayCD Tondela2:0
  • homeCD Feirense1:0

Leixões SC

  • awaySC União Torreense0:0
  • homeAmarante FC3:1
  • awayPortimonense SC2:0
  • homeUD Leiria2:4
  • homeCD Tondela1:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FC Vizela63217:411
5UD Leiria631210:710
6Leixões SC63128:610
7SL Benfica II63127:510
8CD Tondela63037:69
9Associação Académica de Coimbra OAF63038:109
10SC Farense52217:58
11Portimonense SC62134:67

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.