All matches

AS Monaco FC — Lille OSC Métropole, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

AS Monaco FC
2.8WDWWW
—
Lille OSC Métropole
2.7LWLWD
Outcome probability
442631
AS Monaco FC44%Draw26%Lille OSC Métropole31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AS Monaco FC44%2.29—
XDraw26%3.91—
2Lille OSC Métropole31%3.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.16

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAS Monaco FCLille OSC MétropoleCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners9.58.59.0
Cards1.01.02.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AS Monaco FCLille OSC Métropole
    1Table position4
    2.8Days of rest3.9
    53.00%Possession60.50%
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AS Monaco FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AS Monaco FC

  • homeRacing Club de Lens2:1
  • awayRC Strasbourg Alsace1:1
  • awayParis Saint-Germain FC2:1
  • homeOlympique de Marseille2:0
  • homeKS Górnik Zabrze4:1

Lille OSC Métropole

  • awayOGC Nice Côte d'Azur1:2
  • homeEspérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne2:0
  • homeReal Betis Balompié2:3
  • awayToulouse FC1:0
  • homeParis Saint-Germain FC2:2

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Ligue 10:1
  • 08/24/25Ligue 10:1
  • 02/22/25Ligue 11:2
  • 10/18/24Ligue 10:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AS Monaco FC54108:313
2Olympique Lyonnais532010:211
3Paris FC53208:311
4Lille OSC Métropole53118:410
5Stade Rennais FC53118:910
6Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:78

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.