Arsenal FC — Everton FC, Premier League

England, Premier LeagueOctober 24 at 02:00 PM

Arsenal FC

4.4LWWWW

—

Everton FC

2.1WDDDW

Outcome probability

6820

Arsenal FC68%Draw20%Everton FC11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Arsenal FC68%1.46—

XDraw20%4.88—

2Everton FC11%8.91—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.86

No65%

ours 1.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricArsenal FCEverton FCCombined

Goals scored0.330.671.00

Conceded0.500.501.00

Corners8.510.89.6

Cards1.52.33.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Arsenal FCEverton FC
2Table position7
2.8Days of rest7.1
3Matches in 14 days2
58.50%Possession44.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Arsenal FC: a home win is rated at 68%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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