All matches

APOEL FC — Nea Salamis Famagusta, First Division

Cyprus, First Division

APOEL FC
2.1DLWLL
—
Nea Salamis Famagusta
1.2WLLDL
Outcome probability
7316
APOEL FC73%Draw16%Nea Salamis Famagusta11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1APOEL FC73%1.37—
XDraw16%6.30—
2Nea Salamis Famagusta11%8.99—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAPOEL FCNea Salamis FamagustaCombined
Goals scored1.671.833.50
Conceded2.002.174.17
Corners7.07.77.3
Cards2.22.54.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    APOEL FCNea Salamis Famagusta
    57.20%Possession45.30%
    9Table position11
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour APOEL FC: a home win is rated at 73%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 4.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

APOEL FC

  • awayApollon Limassol2:2
  • awayAnorthosis Famagusta FC1:2
  • homeAEL Limassol6:0
  • awayAEK Larnaca1:3
  • awayPaphos FC0:2

Nea Salamis Famagusta

  • homeAnorthosis Famagusta FC3:0
  • awayAEL Limassol1:2
  • homeAEK Larnaca1:4
  • awayOlympiakos Nicosia FC3:3
  • homeAnorthosis Famagusta FC2:4

Head to head

  • 01/08/25First Division1:1
  • 09/22/24First Division3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7ALS Omonia 29is Maiou41219:75
8Aris FC Limassol41214:65
9APOEL FC411210:74
10Olympiakos Nicosia FC40407:74
11Nea Salamis Famagusta41128:94
12Karmiotissa Pano Polemidia40313:63
13Anorthosis Famagusta FC41033:93

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.