Amarante FC — Portimonense SC, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaProOctober 10 at 01:00 PM

Amarante FC

1.8DLWDL

—

Portimonense SC

1.3LLLDW

Outcome probability

432729

Amarante FC43%Draw27%Portimonense SC29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Amarante FC43%2.30—

XDraw27%3.70—

2Portimonense SC29%3.39—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.59

No61%

ours 1.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAmarante FCPortimonense SCCombined

Goals scored0.830.671.50

Conceded1.331.002.33

Corners7.38.27.8

Cards1.51.53.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Amarante FCPortimonense SC
15Table position11
44.70%Possession47.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Amarante FC: a home win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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