Alverca — FC Arouca, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 24 at 05:00 PM

Alverca

2.1WWLDL

—

FC Arouca

1.8DLDWL

Outcome probability

353034

Alverca35%Draw30%FC Arouca34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Alverca35%2.82—

XDraw30%3.30—

2FC Arouca34%2.92—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlvercaFC AroucaCombined

Goals scored1.170.832.00

Conceded1.171.172.34

Corners7.68.48.0

Cards2.02.24.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
AlvercaFC Arouca
10Table position5
42.60%Possession52.40%
11.9Days of rest12.9
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Alverca look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 35%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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