All matches

Almere City FC — SV Roda JC, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

Almere City FC
1.7LWWLW
—
SV Roda JC
1.9WDWDD
Outcome probability
532225
Almere City FC53%Draw22%SV Roda JC25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Almere City FC53%1.88—
XDraw22%4.64—
2SV Roda JC25%3.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlmere City FCSV Roda JCCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded0.500.000.50
Corners9.37.78.5
Cards0.31.01.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Almere City FCSV Roda JC
    2Table position5
    6.1Days of rest4
    44.70%Possession47.30%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Almere City FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 53%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Almere City FC

  • awayFC Dordrecht2:3
  • homeHeracles Almelo1:0
  • awayMVV4:0
  • homeAFC Ajax II0:1
  • awayBV De Graafschap4:1

SV Roda JC

  • homeRKC Waalwijk2:0
  • awayAFC Ajax II0:0
  • homeSBV Vitesse1:0
  • awayMVV1:1
  • homeNAC Breda2:2

Head to head

  • 01/30/26Eerste Divisie1:2
  • 10/20/25Eerste Divisie0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Heracles Almelo870126:1021
2Almere City FC851218:716
3MVV851212:1516
4VVV Venlo850321:1415
5SV Roda JC84319:515
6FC Emmen850318:1715
7RKC Waalwijk834118:1113

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.