Almere City FC — FC Eindhoven, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

Almere City FC

1.7LWWLW

—

FC Eindhoven

1.5LWWDL

Outcome probability

651817

Almere City FC65%Draw18%FC Eindhoven17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Almere City FC65%1.53—

XDraw18%5.71—

2FC Eindhoven17%5.87—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66

No40%

ours 2.51

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlmere City FCFC EindhovenCombined

Goals scored1.831.333.16

Conceded0.831.502.33

Corners11.210.210.7

Cards0.81.42.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Almere City FCFC Eindhoven
2Table position13
44.20%Possession45.60%
6Days of rest6
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Almere City FC: a home win is rated at 65%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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