AZ II — Den Bosch, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

AZ II

1.4WDLWW

—

Den Bosch

1.6LWLLL

Outcome probability

502129

AZ II50%Draw21%Den Bosch29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1AZ II50%2.00—

XDraw21%4.69—

2Den Bosch29%3.47—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes71%

ours 1.42

No29%

ours 3.41

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAZ IIDen BoschCombined

Goals scored2.670.673.34

Conceded1.831.833.66

Corners9.712.010.8

Cards1.21.62.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
AZ IIDen Bosch
0Matches in 14 days2
14Days of rest6
8Table position16
48.80%Possession50.40%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Alkmaar Zaanstreek II look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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