All matches

Alianza Valledupar — Rionegro Aguilas, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera A

Alianza Valledupar
1.3WLWWL
—
Rionegro Aguilas
1.7LLDLD
Outcome probability
393130
Alianza Valledupar39%Draw31%Rionegro Aguilas30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Alianza Valledupar39%2.55—
XDraw31%3.27—
2Rionegro Aguilas30%3.31—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13

No53%

ours 1.89

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlianza ValleduparRionegro AguilasCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded1.501.503.00
Corners11.011.611.3
Cards2.22.44.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Alianza ValleduparRionegro Aguilas
    39.00%Possession52.60%
    17Table position13
    6.9Days of rest6.2
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Alianza Valledupar FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Alianza Valledupar

  • awayJaguares de Cordoba2:1
  • homeIndependiente Santa Fe1:4
  • awayBoyaca Chico2:1
  • homeJunior1:0
  • awayAmerica de Cali0:3

Rionegro Aguilas

  • awayDeportivo Cali0:2
  • awayAmerica de Cali0:1
  • homeDeportivo Pereira2:2
  • awayAtletico Nacional0:2
  • awayLa Equidad2:2

Head to head

  • 03/27/26Categoria Primera A0:1
  • 10/18/25Categoria Primera A0:1
  • 04/26/25Categoria Primera A0:0
  • 11/06/24Categoria Primera A3:0
  • 04/17/24Categoria Primera A0:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Pasto321261438:4642
12La Equidad339131141:5240
13Rionegro Aguilas299101032:4037
14Llaneros308121031:3436
15Fortaleza CEIF306131135:4531
16Cucuta Deportivo306101433:5428
17Alianza Valledupar306101424:4828
18Boyaca Chico29841725:5028
19Jaguares de Cordoba29671631:5125

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.