All matches

Alianza Valledupar FC — CD La Equidad Seguros SA, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera A

Alianza Valledupar FC
1.3WLWWL
—
CD La Equidad Seguros SA
1.1DLLWD
Outcome probability
462925
Alianza Valledupar FC46%Draw29%CD La Equidad Seguros SA25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Alianza Valledupar FC46%2.16—
XDraw29%3.45—
2CD La Equidad Seguros SA25%4.06—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.02

No51%

ours 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlianza Valledupar FCCD La Equidad Seguros SACombined
Goals scored0.830.331.16
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners12.011.311.7
Cards2.02.74.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Alianza Valledupar FCCD La Equidad Seguros SA
    5.8Days of rest3.8
    17Table position12
    42.70%Possession44.00%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Alianza Valledupar FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Alianza Valledupar FC

  • awayJaguares de Córdoba FC2:1
  • homeIndependiente Santa Fe SA1:4
  • awayDeportivo Boyacá Chicó FC SA2:1
  • homeCD Popular Junior FC SA1:0
  • awaySociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA0:3

CD La Equidad Seguros SA

  • awayCS Deportiva y Cultural de Pereira0:0
  • awayCA Bucaramanga0:2
  • homeClub Atlético Nacional SA2:3
  • homeClub Llaneros SA3:2
  • homeRionegro Águilas SA2:2

Head to head

  • 04/13/26Categoria Primera A1:2
  • 10/24/25Categoria Primera A2:0
  • 05/03/25Categoria Primera A2:0
  • 11/02/24Categoria Primera A2:3
  • 04/15/24Categoria Primera A0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10CA Bucaramanga291013643:2943
11AD Pasto321261438:4642
12CD La Equidad Seguros SA339131141:5240
13Rionegro Águilas SA299101032:4037
14Club Llaneros SA308121031:3436
15Fortaleza CEIF FC306131135:4531
16Corporación Nuevo Cúcuta Deportivo306101433:5428
17Alianza Valledupar FC306101424:4828
18Deportivo Boyacá Chicó FC SA29841725:5028
19Jaguares de Córdoba FC29671631:5125

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.