Albania — San Marino, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations LeagueOctober 6 at 06:45 PM

Albania

1.8WWLLW

—

San Marino

1.2LLLLL

Outcome probability

Albania90%Draw8%San Marino3%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Albania90%1.12—

XDraw8%12.64—

2San Marino3%39.53—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes26%

ours 3.90

No74%

ours 1.35

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlbaniaSan MarinoCombined

Goals scored0.670.170.84

Conceded0.674.675.34

Corners7.35.86.5

Cards2.02.54.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
AlbaniaSan Marino
2Table position54
50.00%Possession26.80%
3.2Days of rest3.1
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Albania look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 90%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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