Al Nassr — Al Draih, Professional League

Saudi Arabia, Professional LeagueOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

Al Nassr

3.7DWLWW

—

Al Draih

2.0DWLWD

Outcome probability

7615

Al Nassr76%Draw15%Al Draih9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Al Nassr76%1.32—

XDraw15%6.61—

2Al Draih9%11.25—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.54

No61%

ours 1.65

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAl NassrAl DraihCombined

Goals scored2.171.173.34

Conceded1.170.671.84

Corners11.78.510.1

Cards1.71.22.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Al NassrAl Draih
3Table position8
56.20%Possession46.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Al Nassr FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 76%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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