All matches

Al Fateh — Al Ahli Jeddah, Professional League

Saudi Arabia, Professional League

Al Fateh
1.3LLDDD
—
Al Ahli Jeddah
3.4WLWLL
Outcome probability
1477
Al Fateh9%Draw14%Al Ahli Jeddah77%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Al Fateh9%16%11.156.19-7.2
XDraw14%19%6.945.21-4.8
2Al Ahli Jeddah77%72%1.311.40+5.0

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.95book 1.49

No49%

ours 2.06book 2.42

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAl FatehAl Ahli JeddahCombined
Goals scored0.672.503.17
Conceded1.331.673.00
Corners12.27.59.8
Cards1.81.53.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Al FatehAl Ahli Jeddah
    15Table position6
    45.80%Possession52.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Al Ahli SC Jeddah travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 77%. Bookmakers price this at 1.40.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Al Fateh

  • awayNeom2:4
  • homeAl Draih1:2
  • awayAl Taawon0:0
  • homeAl Ittihad0:0
  • awayAl Faisaly1:1

Al Ahli Jeddah

  • homeAl Hazm3:1
  • awayAl Qadisiyah2:3
  • homeAl Riyadh5:0
  • awayAl Hilal0:3
  • awayAl Kholood1:3

Head to head

  • 05/06/26Professional League1:3
  • 12/26/25Professional League2:1
  • 02/07/25Professional League0:2
  • 08/27/24Professional League1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Al Qadisiyah751116:816
5Neom750213:615
6Al Ahli Jeddah740316:1012
7Al Kholood733112:1012
8Al Draih73227:511
9Al Ittifaq732211:1111
10Al Hazm72237:98
11Al Riyadh72238:168
12Al Feiha71337:116
13Al Khaleej70523:105
14Al Shabab70436:114
15Al Fateh70344:113
16Al Faisaly70345:133
17Al Taawon70343:123

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.