AIK Fotboll — IF Elfsborg, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 27 at 06:00 PM

AIK Fotboll

2.4LLDWW

—

IF Elfsborg

2.2WWLWD

Outcome probability

382437

AIK Fotboll38%Draw24%IF Elfsborg37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1AIK Fotboll38%2.60—

XDraw24%4.09—

2IF Elfsborg37%2.70—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAIK FotbollIF ElfsborgCombined

Goals scored0.330.671.00

Conceded1.000.501.50

Corners7.59.38.4

Cards0.50.71.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
AIK FotbollIF Elfsborg
8Table position4
3.2Days of rest4
38.30%Possession40.50%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
AIK Fotboll look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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