All matches

AFC Bournemouth — Sunderland AFC, Premier League

England, Premier League

AFC Bournemouth
2.5LWDDD
—
Sunderland AFC
2.4LWLDW
Outcome probability
492823
AFC Bournemouth49%Draw28%Sunderland AFC23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AFC Bournemouth49%2.03—
XDraw28%3.63—
2Sunderland AFC23%4.31—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.04

No51%

ours 1.96

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAFC BournemouthSunderland AFCCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners7.310.38.8
Cards3.02.85.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AFC BournemouthSunderland AFC
    17Table position14
    45.80%Possession46.00%
    2.8Days of rest2.8
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AFC Bournemouth look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 49%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AFC Bournemouth

  • homeLiverpool FC0:1
  • awayReal Sociedad de Fútbol2:1
  • homeBrentford FC2:2
  • awayNewcastle United FC2:2
  • homeEverton FC1:1

Sunderland AFC

  • awayManchester City FC3:5
  • homeAlkmaar Zaanstreek1:0
  • homeArsenal FC0:2
  • awayBrentford FC1:1
  • homeFulham FC1:0

Head to head

  • 02/28/26Premier League1:1
  • 11/29/25Premier League2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Manchester United FC51228:85
13Nottingham Forest FC51224:55
14Sunderland AFC51136:104
15Crystal Palace FC51136:114
16Aston Villa FC51134:94
17AFC Bournemouth50326:83
18Coventry City FC51041:103
19Fulham FC50235:82

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.