AFC Ajax II — VVV Venlo, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

AFC Ajax II

0.8DLLWD

—

VVV Venlo

1.4LWWLW

Outcome probability

332344

AFC Ajax II33%Draw23%VVV Venlo44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1AFC Ajax II33%3.04—

XDraw23%4.41—

2VVV Venlo44%2.25—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAFC Ajax IIVVV VenloCombined

Goals scored1.002.333.33

Conceded1.831.503.33

Corners12.210.411.3

Cards2.31.03.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
AFC Ajax IIVVV Venlo
0Matches in 14 days2
15Table position4
14Days of rest5.2
55.30%Possession49.40%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
VVV Venlo travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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