Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.61
No38%
ours 2.64
All matches
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AFC Ajax II — BV De Graafschap, Eerste Divisie
Netherlands, Eerste Divisie
AFC Ajax II
0.8DLLWDBV De Graafschap
2.1WLWLLOutcome probability
312247
AFC Ajax II31%Draw22%BV De Graafschap47%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AFC Ajax II3.23—
XDraw4.48—
2BV De Graafschap2.14—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAFC Ajax IIBV De GraafschapCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded1.501.332.83
Corners11.410.811.1
Cards2.42.04.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
AFC Ajax IIBV De Graafschap15Table position1954.80%Possession49.00%10Days of rest101Matches in 14 days1 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, BV De Graafschap still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 9.5
67%
Form and context
AFC Ajax II
- homeSV Roda JC0:0
- awayFC Utrecht II1:6
- homeRKC Waalwijk0:2
- awayAlmere City FC1:0
- awayPSV Eindhoven II1:1
BV De Graafschap
- homeFC Den Bosch1:0
- homeNAC Breda1:2
- awayFC Emmen2:1
- awayHeracles Almelo0:5
- homeAlmere City FC1:4
Head to head
- 02/06/26Eerste Divisie0:4
- 10/03/25Eerste Divisie2:2
- 04/19/25Eerste Divisie0:2
- 12/09/24Eerste Divisie2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13
FC Eindhoven831413:1710
FC Eindhoven831413:171014
Helmond Sport822413:148
Helmond Sport822413:14815AFC Ajax II922513:228
AFC Ajax II922513:22816
FC Den Bosch821512:177
FC Den Bosch821512:17717
FC Utrecht II921615:217
FC Utrecht II921615:21718
FC Dordrecht821512:237
FC Dordrecht821512:23719BV De Graafschap82159:207
BV De Graafschap82159:20720
FC Oss82068:136
FC Oss82068:136