All matches

AF Sporting San Miguelito — Unión Coclé FC, LPF

Panama, LPF

AF Sporting San Miguelito
1.7DLLDD
—
Unión Coclé FC
1.7LLLLD
Outcome probability
423622
AF Sporting San Miguelito42%Draw36%Unión Coclé FC22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AF Sporting San Miguelito42%2.36—
XDraw36%2.78—
2Unión Coclé FC22%4.60—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes29%

ours 3.48

No71%

ours 1.40

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAF Sporting San MiguelitoUnión Coclé FCCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded1.832.334.16
Corners9.58.38.9
Cards1.41.42.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AF Sporting San MiguelitoUnión Coclé FC
    10Table position12
    53.60%Possession49.50%
    8.1Days of rest8.2
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AF Sporting San Miguelito look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Both teams to score: No

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AF Sporting San Miguelito

  • awayVeraguas CD1:1
  • awayCA Independiente de La Chorrera3:4
  • homeSan Francisco FC Panama0:2
  • awayCD Universitario1:1
  • homeHerrera FC2:2

Unión Coclé FC

  • homeCD Plaza Amador1:2
  • awayUMECIT FC0:1
  • awayCD Árabe Unido1:4
  • homeTauro FC0:2
  • homeAlianza FC Panama2:2

Head to head

  • 03/08/26LPF2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8CD Universitario102539:1011
9CA Independiente de La Chorrera1024414:1610
10AF Sporting San Miguelito101548:138
11Herrera FC101369:236
12Unión Coclé FC101277:185

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.