All matches

Academia Puerto Cabello — Monagas SC, Primera División

Venezuela, Primera División

Academia Puerto Cabello
2.3WDLDD
—
Monagas SC
1.5DWWLW
Outcome probability
582517
Academia Puerto Cabello58%Draw25%Monagas SC17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Academia Puerto Cabello58%1.72—
XDraw25%3.96—
2Monagas SC17%6.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.19

No54%

ours 1.84

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAcademia Puerto CabelloMonagas SCCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners10.68.09.3
Cards2.63.46.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Academia Puerto CabelloMonagas SC
    5Table position11
    57.20%Possession52.00%
    6.2Days of rest6.1
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Academia Puerto Cabello look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 58%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Academia Puerto Cabello

  • homePortuguesa FC2:1
  • awayDeportivo Táchira FC1:1
  • homeCarabobo FC0:2
  • awayUniversidad Central de Venezuela FC0:0
  • homeDeportivo La Guaira1:1

Monagas SC

  • awayDeportivo Rayo Zuliano1:1
  • homeZamora Fútbol Club1:0
  • awayCaracas FC1:0
  • homeMetropolitanos FC0:1
  • awayAcademia Anzoátegui FC3:1

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Primera División1:1
  • 11/04/25Primera División3:2
  • 10/21/25Primera División2:1
  • 08/03/25Primera División1:1
  • 02/23/25Primera División1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Carabobo FC311312647:2851
4Deportivo La Guaira301311641:2750
5Academia Puerto Cabello311210940:3246
6Portuguesa FC301111840:3344
7Universidad Central de Venezuela FC301281044:3944
8Estudiantes de Mérida FC301161335:3839
9Deportivo Rayo Zuliano24831331:4527
10Caracas FC24511824:3126
11Monagas SC24741326:3525
12Zamora Fútbol Club24671124:3525
13Trujillanos FC24361521:4415

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.