Academia Anzoátegui FC — Carabobo FC, Primera División

Venezuela, Primera DivisiónOctober 11 at 08:00 PM

Academia Anzoátegui FC

1.0DLLLL

—

Carabobo FC

3.1DWWWL

Outcome probability

2463

Academia Anzoátegui FC14%Draw24%Carabobo FC63%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Academia Anzoátegui FC14%7.35—

XDraw24%4.26—

2Carabobo FC63%1.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.56

No61%

ours 1.64

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAcademia Anzoátegui FCCarabobo FCCombined

Goals scored0.331.331.66

Conceded2.000.832.83

Corners8.79.59.1

Cards2.72.55.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Academia Anzoátegui FCCarabobo FC
14Table position3
43.30%Possession49.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Carabobo FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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