All matches

AC Sparta Praha — FK Pardubice, First League

Czech Republic, First League

AC Sparta Praha
3.2WWWLL
—
FK Pardubice
1.3WWDLL
Outcome probability
7615
AC Sparta Praha76%Draw15%FK Pardubice9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Sparta Praha76%1.31—
XDraw15%6.84—
2FK Pardubice9%11.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.98

No50%

ours 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAC Sparta PrahaFK PardubiceCombined
Goals scored2.331.173.50
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners12.29.811.0
Cards1.52.84.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AC Sparta PrahaFK Pardubice
    7Table position13
    62.20%Possession39.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour AC Sparta Praha: a home win is rated at 76%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AC Sparta Praha

  • awaySK Sigma Olomouc3:0
  • awayFC Avan Academy4:1
  • homeFK Jablonec 2:0
  • awayFC Hradec Králové1:2
  • homeSK Slavia Praha0:3

FK Pardubice

  • homeBohemians 19052:1
  • awayFC Banik Ostrava2:1
  • away1. FC Slovácko0:0
  • homeSK Líšeň1:2
  • awaySK Sigma Olomouc1:3

Head to head

  • 11/30/25First League2:4
  • 08/03/25First League3:1
  • 04/19/25First League2:1
  • 07/19/24First League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FK Teplice951317:1516
6FC Zbrojovka Brno951312:1216
7AC Sparta Praha950418:1215
8FK Jablonec 942311:914
9FC Hradec Králové94238:914
10FC Viktoria Plzeň924317:1710
11FC Banik Ostrava93157:1710
12Bohemians 190582339:119
13FK Pardubice92259:148
14SK Líšeň91267:185
151. FC Slovácko90457:164

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.