All matches

AC Sparta Praha — 1. FC Slovácko, First League

Czech Republic, First League

AC Sparta Praha
3.2WWWLL
—
1. FC Slovácko
0.9DLDDL
Outcome probability
84
AC Sparta Praha84%Draw10%1. FC Slovácko5%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Sparta Praha84%1.19—
XDraw10%9.74—
21. FC Slovácko5%18.28—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.28

No56%

ours 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAC Sparta Praha1. FC SlováckoCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded0.170.831.00
Corners12.58.510.5
Cards0.52.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AC Sparta Praha1. FC Slovácko
    4Matches in 14 days1
    2.8Days of rest7.1
    7Table position15
    56.00%Possession50.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour AC Sparta Praha: a home win is rated at 84%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AC Sparta Praha

  • awaySK Sigma Olomouc3:0
  • awayFC Avan Academy4:1
  • homeFK Jablonec 2:0
  • awayFC Hradec Králové1:2
  • homeSK Slavia Praha0:3

1. FC Slovácko

  • homeFC Banik Ostrava2:2
  • awayBohemians 19050:2
  • homeFK Pardubice0:0
  • awayFC Viktoria Plzeň1:1
  • awayFK Mladá Boleslav1:2

Head to head

  • 03/15/26First League5:2
  • 10/19/25First League0:0
  • 02/02/25First League2:0
  • 08/24/24First League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FK Teplice951317:1516
6FC Zbrojovka Brno951312:1216
7AC Sparta Praha950418:1215
8FK Jablonec 942311:914
9FC Hradec Králové94238:914
10FC Viktoria Plzeň924317:1710
11FC Banik Ostrava93157:1710
12Bohemians 190582339:119
13FK Pardubice92259:148
14SK Líšeň91267:185
151. FC Slovácko90457:164
16FC FASTAV Zlín90188:191

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.