AC Milan 0:2 SL Benfica, UEFA Europa League

Europe, UEFA Europa LeagueSeptember 16 at 07:00 PMMatch finished

AC Milan

2.8WLDDW

0:2HT 0:1

SL Benfica

4.0LWWWW

Pre-match forecastpublished September 16 at 04:21 PM

292645

AC Milan29%Draw26%SL Benfica45%

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.85xG1.14

61Possession, %39

17Shots11

4Shots on target4

10Corners1

1Yellow cards5

0Red cards0

14Fouls12

0Offsides3

How the forecast did

In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3

Main markets landedresult, half, totals, both to score

All forecast markets: landed 49 of 87void — 1

Match result Landed
SL Benfica45%
Total goals Missed
Over 2.553%
Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 47%
Both teams to score Missed
Yes57%
Actual: No — we had 43%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1AC Milan29%3.47—

XDraw26%3.86—

2SL Benfica45%2.21—

Form and context

AC Milan

homeUS Lecce3:0
homeSL Benfica0:2
awaySS Lazio2:2
awayJuventus FC1:1
homeVenezia FC2:0

SL Benfica

awayFC Porto1:3
awayAC Milan2:0
homeGil Vicente FC3:1
awayMoreirense FC4:0
awayCS Marítimo Funchal3:0

Head to head

09/16/26UEFA Europa League0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts

1

Ferencvárosi TC972019:623

2

Beşiktaş760112:218

3

SL Benfica751121:616

4

RSC Anderlecht751115:616

5

FC Salzburg54109:313

6

PFC CSKA Sofia83239:1111

7

KKS Lech Poznań531115:610

8

SSA Jagiellonia Białystok531110:510

9

AC Omonia Nicosia53117:410

10

OFI FC33007:09

11

Maccabi Tel Aviv FC43019:49

12

Qarabağ Ağdam FK42206:08

13

PAOK Thessaloniki FC42027:66

14

FC Hradec Králové42024:36

15

HNK Hajduk Split42025:66

16

CS Universitatea Craiova41214:45

17

KS Egnatia Rrogozhinë41127:64

18

Paphos FC41127:64

19

Lillestrøm SK31113:34

20

FC Avan Academy31113:54

21

FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi41123:74

22

FC Thun41127:124

23

FK Sheriff Tiraspol41121:64

24

Juventus FC11005:03

25

Crystal Palace FC11004:03

26

AC Sparta Praha11004:13

27

Royal Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03

28

Bayer 04 Leverkusen11002:03

29

AFC Bournemouth11002:13

30

Olympiakos CFP11002:13

31

SC União Torreense11002:13

32

Olympique Lyonnais11002:13

33

Sunderland AFC11001:03

34

Red Star Belgrade21014:53

35

Sint-Truidense VV21013:43

36

MŠK Žilina21012:33

37

FC Viktoria Plzeň31025:73

38

Shamrock Rovers FC21014:63

39

Víkingur Reykjavík21013:53

40

FK Kauno Žalgiris21011:33

41

FC Sankt Gallen 187921012:63

42

FC Universitatea Cluj20200:02

43

FC Dynamo Kyiv40222:52

44

Hapoel Be'er Sheva FC10100:01

45

SK Sturm Graz10100:01

46

GNK Dinamo Zagreb10100:01

47

Stade Rennais FC10100:01

48

FC Twente20113:41

49

Rangers FC20112:31

50

Kuopion Palloseura20112:31

51

KS Górnik Zabrze20111:21

52

Larne FC20111:21

53

Lincoln Red Imps FC20111:21

54

NK Aluminij20110:11

55

Hammarby IF20112:41

56

Heart of Midlothian FC20112:71

57

Real Sociedad de Fútbol10011:20

58

Alkmaar Zaanstreek10010:10

59

Real Club Celta de Vigo10010:10

60

PFC Levski Sofia10010:10

61

Derry City FC20023:50

62

Celtic FC10011:30

63

NK Celje10010:20

64

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim10010:20

65

AC Milan10010:20

66

Olympique de Marseille10011:40

67

Tromsø IL20021:40

Full breakdown

Every market of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.