All matches

AC Goianiense — Grêmio Novorizontino, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

AC Goianiense
1.8WLWWD
—
Grêmio Novorizontino
2.6DLDWW
Outcome probability
393031
AC Goianiense39%Draw30%Grêmio Novorizontino31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AC Goianiense39%2.58—
XDraw30%3.34—
2Grêmio Novorizontino31%3.19—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.45

No59%

ours 1.69

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAC GoianienseGrêmio NovorizontinoCombined
Goals scored0.170.170.34
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners12.510.511.5
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AC GoianienseGrêmio Novorizontino
    6Table position4
    6.1Days of rest4.1
    56.50%Possession54.00%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AC Goianiense look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AC Goianiense

  • awayGoiás EC1:0
  • awaySão Bernardo FC0:1
  • homeCriciuma EC4:0
  • homeCeará SC2:1
  • awayEC Juventude2:2

Grêmio Novorizontino

  • homeSão Bernardo FC0:0
  • awayCeará SC1:2
  • homeCuiabá EC1:1
  • awayBotafogo FC Ribeirão Preto3:1
  • homeAvai FC3:1

Head to head

  • 07/04/26Serie B0:3
  • 09/08/25Serie B1:1
  • 05/04/25Serie B1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2EC Juventude30158732:1953
3Fortaleza EC301410635:2652
4Grêmio Novorizontino30149749:2751
5Criciuma EC30148831:2750
6AC Goianiense301310737:2749
7Operário Ferroviário EC30139843:3848
8Clube de Regatas Brasil301461045:4148

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.