All matches

1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05
2.3WLWDW
—
SV Werder Bremen
1.6WDWLL
Outcome probability
542521
1. FSV Mainz 0554%Draw25%SV Werder Bremen21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
11. FSV Mainz 0554%1.85—
XDraw25%4.04—
2SV Werder Bremen21%4.72—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05SV Werder BremenCombined
Goals scored1.671.333.00
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners10.39.39.8
Cards2.31.33.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    1. FSV Mainz 05SV Werder Bremen
    2Matches in 14 days1
    6Table position8
    51.00%Possession48.80%
    7Days of rest7
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour 1. FSV Mainz 05: a home win is rated at 54%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

1. FSV Mainz 05

  • awayBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach4:3
  • homeEintracht Frankfurt1:3
  • awayHamburger SV5:0
  • homeSC Paderborn 070:0
  • away1. FC Heidenheim 18462:0

SV Werder Bremen

  • homeFC Augsburg3:2
  • away1. FC Köln1:1
  • homeRasen Ballsport Leipzig3:1
  • awaySC Freiburg1:4
  • homeBVB 09 Borussia Dortmund0:2

Head to head

  • 03/15/26Bundesliga2:0
  • 11/01/25Bundesliga1:1
  • 01/31/25Bundesliga0:1
  • 09/15/24Bundesliga1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FC Augsburg421111:67
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
61. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
7SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
8SV Werder Bremen42118:87
9Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
10Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.