Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.72
No42%
ours 2.39
All matches
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1. FC Union Berlin — SV 07 Elversberg, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
1. FC Union Berlin
1.5LLLDWSV 07 Elversberg
2.7DLWWWOutcome probability
262647
1. FC Union Berlin26%Draw26%SV 07 Elversberg47%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
11. FC Union Berlin3.78—
XDraw3.82—
2SV 07 Elversberg2.11—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
Metric1. FC Union BerlinSV 07 ElversbergCombined
Goals scored1.832.003.83
Conceded3.001.674.67
Corners11.29.810.5
Cards2.31.53.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
1. FC Union BerlinSV 07 Elversberg17Table position746.50%Possession48.00%14Days of rest140Matches in 14 days0 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SV 07 Elversberg travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Goal in both halves: Yes
69%
Form and context
1. FC Union Berlin
- awayFC Bayern München0:7
- homeFC Schalke 041:3
- awayBayer 04 Leverkusen0:4
- homeEintracht Frankfurt3:3
- homeFC Augsburg4:0
SV 07 Elversberg
- awayFC Schalke 040:0
- homeFC Bayern München1:2
- awayBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach4:3
- homeBayer 04 Leverkusen3:2
- homePreußen 06 Münster3:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:576
1. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
1. FSV Mainz 05421110:677SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
SV 07 Elversberg42118:778
SV Werder Bremen42118:87
SV Werder Bremen42118:879
Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:5610
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:10511
FC Schalke 0441213:45
FC Schalke 0441213:4512
SC Paderborn 0741123:54
SC Paderborn 0741123:5413
1. FC Köln41126:94
1. FC Köln41126:9414
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:103
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:10315
VfB Stuttgart 189341036:93
VfB Stuttgart 189341036:9316
Hamburger SV41032:133
Hamburger SV41032:133171. FC Union Berlin40134:171
1. FC Union Berlin40134:17118
Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach40046:160
Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach40046:160